Invest 99L in the western Caribbean.......
Posted 19 October 2010 - 01:35 PM
"Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized over the past day over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands in association with a tropical disturbance. A surface circulation may be beginning to form, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the area this afternoon to see if a tropical depression is forming. The storm is currently moving north-northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but is expected to move west or southwest beginning on Wednesday, making the storm primarily a threat to Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize late this week."
Posted 19 October 2010 - 08:17 PM
.."and this system could become a tropical depression at
any time tonight or Wednesday as it remains nearly stationary.
Interests in the northwest Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. There is a high chance...70
percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours".
I wouldn't worry, but I would keep an eye on this. This might be your last shot at an Invest this season. The official season doesn't end until the end of November, but we're most of the way through our potential "high season" of mid September to the end of October. This region off Costa Rica-Nicaragua is the area most likely to produce storms that could affect us at this stage of the season. Although we are on norte (cold front) number 7(?), only one could have been considered a true norte. Traditional wisdom says the arrival of the first norte ends the threat of tropical storms, but we need a couple more nortes before I'd take that one to the bank. We're almost there and Cozumel really needed and deserved a storm free season.
Posted 20 October 2010 - 09:19 PM
As they say, "it don't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows", but the computer models have this one either headed to Belice or threading the channel between Cancun and Cuba and going straight to Tampa. If the western models are true, it could pass across the neck of the Yucatan peninsula and the additional rainfall would complicate highway repairs which are still affecting truck traffic from the mainland. They don't need more rain in Vera Cruz or Tabasco.
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