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2012 Hurricane Season. Colorado State Predicts Unusually Mild Hurricane Season


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#21 Coz2wonder

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 01:30 PM

Animals are a better predictor of an immediate weather calamity then perhaps humans are. They have a natural instinct for survival. Humans will debate the likelihood of everything. :rolleyes:

Heard the Mayan will be releasing their new calendar shortly.
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#22 morenita

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 01:36 PM

You are very right. Animals dolphins you name it are an excellent at knowing a storm is coming.

"Heard the Mayan will be releasing their new calendar shortly". I love this.
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#23 morenita

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 02:43 PM

Nauticab I am not intending to be critical. Just a clarification. But the quote you listed from weather underground does not specifically address the april forecasts. It only addresses the spread sheet and explains its rating, and says that it has the potential to make skillfull forecasts and mentions another forecast will be due June 1. What they say earlier or further up specifically addresses this april forecast. It is what I had earlier quoted

From Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground refering to Colorado State Universities april predictions: "April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called predictability barrier.

This is exactly why I stressed that these early forcasts are of very little use

Sorry. Just a clarification. Thats all.

Much of this discussion comes down to how you view science. Dr Gray is using methods of modeling that are fifty years old. He is a well known denier of global warming. If someone wants to take up that debate then that is a whole different topic.

I am well aware that there are some who do doubt global warming. Or those who do not believe in evolution or believe that the earth is billions of years old. But personally I think on those subjects I am scientifically on much more solid ground. Of the last 20 years 19 were the hottest on record. And winters have been harsher. Rainfall has been heavier. And droughts have been dryer.


Gray will have plenty of opportunities to hear more about the work’s shortcomings if it is ever subjected to the rigors of peer review.

Gray’s paper begins with a quote from Senator Inhofe calling global warming a hoax perpetrated on the American people, and ends with a quote by a representive of the Society of Petroleum Geologists stating that Crichton’s State of Fear has "the absolute ring of truth." It is the gaping flaws in the scientific argument sandwiched between these two statements that are our major concern.

For years, perhaps decades, Gray has been ascribing all sorts of climate changes and hurricane cycles to fluctuations in the Thermohaline Circulation (THC), an overturning circulation in the Atlantic ocean associated with formation of deep water in the North Atlantic. None of the assertions are based on rigorous statistical associations, oceanographic observations or physically based simulations; it is all seat-of -the-pants stuff of a sort that was common in the early days of climate studies, but which is difficult to evaluate when viewed as a scientific hypothesis.
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#24 detroit...(texas)

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 02:57 PM

i would like to request that there be no storms or heavy rains the third week of May, with a high temp. of 98 degrees together with record low humidity, thank you
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#25 nauticab

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 03:05 PM

i put that quote to simply state that the june predictions are the ones to take more seriously, and also to show that mr masters acknowledges these predictions as something to consider when you are so fast to shoot them down based one conference you went to years ago to learn a bit about the subject.
i try not to fill in each and every detail of each and every study i search online or find in my notes of past conferences. this is a general discussion group, not a week long conference on hurricane predictabilty.
can we suffice it to say, that let's keep our fingers crossed that the EXPERTS are predicting (albeit later predictions are more accurate) that this will be a slower than average hurricane season?????
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#26 nauticab

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 03:07 PM

detroit, your request has been submitted and i forecast positive results!
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#27 morenita

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 03:31 PM

Actually his april forecast is almost exactly the average. He calls for 10 tropical storms which is 1/2 more than the average and 2 major hurricanes which is the average. And depending on which average you trust over the last 60+ years either 1 or 2 named storms under the average. So on balance one more tropical storm one less hurricane and the same number of severe storms. That is about as close to the norm as you can get. Overall an average season if you compare it to the last 60+ years. I am sure hoping for a below average season. But prepared for the worst. Just one hurricane is serious if it is the one that hits us directly.

And I am not shooting anything down based on one conference. It is not anything I believe it's the facts. These are not opinions. The data is from Dr. Grays last twenty years of predictions and his analysis of them.

I wish peolpe would read what is really said or not comment at all.

I give very lengthy explanations. That is because I love reading and learning. No one ever has to read anything I post. It is very easy to ignore anything I say. But if someone is going to comment on my remarks they should at least read them. Or just ignore them entirely.

According to Jeff Masters at Weather Underground the British forecasting firm TSR has consistently performed better in their early april and june forecasts than NOAA or Dr. Gray at CSU. But that one should not put much confidence in any early forecasts. August predictions almost always tend to be more accurate. For obvious reasons. Stay tuned for june and august forecasts.


"I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 11% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 9% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much better than flipping a coin, but is better than the negative forecast skill of the Klotzbach/Gray April forecasts". Jeff Masters of Weather Underground

Dr. Gray has performed slightly better in forecasting the total number of storms. But when it comes to predicting the number of hurricanes and intensity of hurricanes there was no contest. The Brits win by a long shot. It is not even close. That is from data compiled from Jeff Masters at Weather Underground.
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#28 cvchief

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 04:36 PM

It really doesn't matter who is the King of 'PREDICTIONS'...there only predictions.

Follow the science, have basic understand of weather and hope like hell the winds turn in another directions others then towards us.

I look at many different forecasts, models, find the common ground, and logic between them. I really don't give a hoot who the mouth piece is.


As long as you know far enough ahead to beat the dry declaration.....:P


Some would suggest turtle nesting is a more accurate prediction.


Now if you have a good one of those, let me know. We want to bring a friend and her daughter to help with little ones as late as possible. :D
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#29 MarkC

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Posted 09 April 2012 - 09:26 AM

I think what Mark is saying is that in spanish it means the little boy. It is the name for the "christ child". If I remember correctly it was given this name because the warming is near to Christmas.

Is that what you were refering to Mark?


Noone got my Chris Farley SNL reference? lol

www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8

Enjoy
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