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Tropical Storm(Hurricane) Ernesto


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#1 TRAVELER89

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Posted 04 August 2012 - 04:59 PM

Lastest projection from STORMCARIB......

Results for Cozumel, Mexico (20.44N, 86.93W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.1N, 87.2W or about 95.9 miles (154.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 12 hours and 33 minutes from now (Wednesday, August 8 at 4:06AM EDT).

Point of landfall is now projected to be north of Chetumal, on the coast near Majahual.


Stormcarib: http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

Edited by TRAVELER89, 07 August 2012 - 01:36 PM.

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#2 CZMDM

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Posted 04 August 2012 - 09:41 PM

Storm is racing West. CPA has been moved up by almost 24 hours. CPA moved South to 134 miles South of Cozumel.

http://www.wundergro...01205_5day.html

http://www.wundergro...201205_sat.html

http://www.wundergro...1205_model.html

http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/050247.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa....?large#contents

@ 5am/Sunday morning CPA reset to 8am Wed..

Storm has deteriorated slightly overnight.
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#3 Carey

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Posted 05 August 2012 - 07:18 AM

It appears pretty clear that the storm is going to come ashore down near Belize on Wednesday morning. And the African wave that's coming behind it is not projected to do anything.

And so here we are again one of the ten pins in Hurricane Alley. But looks like this one gave us a miss. I think of the Yucatan channel as the bowling alley as they so often come rolling through that way.

This is my first experience not being on the island when a storm is predicted and I must say I do not like it much.
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#4 CZMDM

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 01:30 PM

The eye has jumped to the North. Landfall has been moved to the North. Storm is undergoing a relatively strong increase in wind speed and could impact the Yucatan as a low end Cat. 2 hurricane. If you are not watching the storm you might want to start. If you need additional information; Facebook: Cozumel Diving

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#5 TRAVELER89

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 09:43 PM

HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL.. INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Edited by TRAVELER89, 07 August 2012 - 01:42 PM.

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