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50 % Chance of tropical Cyclone formation


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#1 Cozumel Wireless

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 12:22 AM

I knew it would be and active season...

so... we should keep our eyes open for this one... too close for comfort...

as of 2:00 EDT July 5 , 2010

2. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

http://www.stormpulse.com

http://www.crownweather.com/

Saludos!

Nemecio

P.S. Carey, could you move this one wherever it belongs? I could not figure where to start this tread!
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#2 Carey

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 06:36 AM

They're seeing dolphins swimming with the boats over the last couple of days, I'm told. The local wisdom goes this fortells stormy weather a-comin in the not too distant future. Guess they were right on this one.

I'm not too concerned about a storm that forms this close to us as it generally doesn't have time to build up even half a head of steam before it reaches our bowling pin. Of course, didn't Ivan sort of do that? I believe that one DID come across from Africa but it was still a baby in the carribbean near us. Then, literally, overnight it went from something like a cat 1 to a cat 3.5. It was like go to bed with a sigh of relief. Wake up the next morning and your hair suddenly starts standing on end as you look at the computer models over your first cup of tea. EEEE.

Ivan took a weird southward jog at the last minute also if I remember correctly before barrelling up the channel and missing us completely.

The ones to most watch out for in my experience come from the south up from the Bay of Honduras area. But the weather is changing so I guess all bets are off. Good we're all prepared. And if anyone reading this is NOT, well, times awastin', kiddo.

I will have to admit that 12 years or so when I was down here alone putting some finishing touches on the house in July, a major storm started barrelling our way. My old-timer friends were saying "This is gonna be a big one!". And I, rube that I was, had given no thought whatsoever to hurricane protection. That was a very hot and hellish two days riding around on my tricyclo finding and purchasing 3/4" plywood, pipes, anchors, screws. Fortunately I had my builders to help me put it up.

And then, of course, the storm missed us. I vowed never to get caught out like a dumb bunny again. But every year around this time or earlier, I inspect all my supplies, etc. to be sure everything is in good shape. Knock on wood the only thing I need done this year is to have little peepholes jigsaw cut in two of my bathroom window protectores so we can peep out and see when and if the peace of the eyewall comes over us so I can quickly let my dogs out.
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