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Head's Up 92 L


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#1 Carey

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Posted 09 September 2010 - 12:23 PM

Forming off the coast of south america so it will miss the trough that was sending the Africa hurricanes up the US coast or to Bermuda. This is one to watch closely as it is coming from the direction of the ones that usually git us and has plenty of time and lots of warm water to build its lil self up before it gets near us. Just a heads up to anyone who hasn't got all their hurricane prep ready to go. If you've been putting off something in this department, now would be a good time to get it done.
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#2 nauticab

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Posted 09 September 2010 - 03:55 PM

not liking this.
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#3 CZMDM

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Posted 09 September 2010 - 08:31 PM

It is now moving North and all the modeling systems except one have it going way North of the island. No doubt the ones that come in just North of the South American continent are usually the ones most dangerous for Cozumel impact.
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#4 nauticab

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Posted 09 September 2010 - 09:20 PM

if the black, purple, or blue forecasts come true, at least it won't have too much time to develop into something too bad (if it keeps moving of course) and hitting so much land, shouldn't become too much of a threat to cuba either.
ok, gotta get my windows installed on the 2nd floor. YA!
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#5 Coz2wonder

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 12:02 PM

new forecast model, looks like it is going to turn before it gets near us...keep the good thoughts going!
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#6 CZMDM

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Posted 11 September 2010 - 08:47 AM

Some models have this storm dissapating. Some have it hitting the Yucatan as a Cat. 4 hurricane late Thursday. The model guidance has had it going everywhere from Cozumel to Honduras to Cuba and to Moscow :). The models ARE all starting to line up. The only bright spot is the HWRF (extremely reliable) shows it going to the Bahamas and the GFS (very reliable, which predicted the dissapation of Gaston) shows this system dissapating as well. The 3rd most accurate model GFDL has it hitting just South of the island as a major hurricane. I think we will know much more in 36 hours. Looks like we'll be boarding up the villa Tuesday. Anybody living in the Yucatan or planning a visit next weekend should keep a close watch on this system.

On my Facebook Diving page I post all model and track changes as they become available.
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#7 BlueWaterPrincessa

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Posted 11 September 2010 - 06:54 PM

Some models have this storm dissapating. Some have it hitting the Yucatan as a Cat. 4 hurricane late Thursday. The model guidance has had it going everywhere from Cozumel to Honduras to Cuba and to Moscow :). The models ARE all starting to line up. The only bright spot is the HWRF (extremely reliable) shows it going to the Bahamas and the GFS (very reliable, which predicted the dissapation of Gaston) shows this system dissapating as well. The 3rd most accurate model GFDL has it hitting just South of the island as a major hurricane. I think we will know much more in 36 hours. Looks like we'll be boarding up the villa Tuesday. Anybody living in the Yucatan or planning a visit next weekend should keep a close watch on this system.

On my Facebook Diving page I post all model and track changes as they become available.


how reliable are the bamm and nogaps models traditionally?
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#8 Carey

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 07:00 AM

how reliable are the bamm and nogaps models traditionally?


Those are the two I don't pay much attention to. They are way off a lot. Of course, technology is improving. Let's see what it looks like this morning. hmmmmm.....Yesterday afternoon's posting from Jeff Masters, my personal weather guru, the only one to predict that the dykes in New Orleans caving in would be the true disaster of Katrina, had this to say:

He predicts it will hit somewhere on the Yucatan Pennisula on Wednesday as a cat 1 or 2. He says there's a lot of dry air in the carribbean right now and that's offsetting the record high sea temps that are fueling the storm.

He says the HWRF model has been tracking too northerly in past forecasts so he's not paying attention to that one.

So it's still watch and see and we'll know more this afternoon, I'm sure. The good news is only a cat 1 or 2. I'm not sure I'll even board up if that's confirmed last minute. That's because I'm grumpy and jaded.
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#9 Carey

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 11:02 AM

Latest opinion from Masters posted around noon Sunday:

Intensity forecast for 92L
NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday at 50%; I'd put them higher, at 70%. However, time is running out for 92L to become a hurricane before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane by then. The storm may also suffer another of its mysterious evening collapses, where it loses most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. However, the SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. There are a number of research flights being made into 92L this afternoon that should help long-term efforts to make better predictions in the future on whether or not disturbances like this will develop or not.

--So, so far, it's looking like it's def going to hit the Yucatan -- where they don't know yet. But it is in all probability going to come ashore as a tropical storm or possibly a Cat 1. No big worries at this point. Of course, many of us remember Ivan which looked like a no worry situation and we all woke up the next morning and stared at our weather maps with eyes bulging out in horror. So no complacancy on my part. But so far, not bad.

Of course, there's another bowling ball rolling off the coast of Africa. Tis the season to be bummed out. Fa la la la LAH, la lah lah LAH.
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#10 nauticab

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 07:26 PM

not sure if NOT having my windows on my 2nd floor is a good thing or bad at this moment and not a dang thing i can do about it. ugh
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#11 CZMDM

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 09:33 PM

In my experience the GFDL, GFS, and HWRF are usually the more reliable models. BAMM would be the 4th and NOGAPS is not worth paying attention to. In 2008 BAMM was THE most reliable according to NOAA. Dr. Masters....way to much "end of the world" scenario for me. While the NOAA is talking about 92L maybe becoming a depression before making landfall, Dr. Jeff is predicting a Cat. 1-2 hurricane. He does it so often I rarely read his reports any longer outside of getting directional information. It will be here sometime Wednesday. If it whips up tomorrow there is still time to board up. The Captain of the Port was indicating that they believe there is a cold pressure system that will block the island from any wind storm. I guess we'll know in about 50 hours. BTW: I just looked at the animation from AccuWeather and the storm is rotating in a clockward direction.

Actually per Katrina the Army Corp of Engineers predicted many years before Katrina that the levees would not sustain a hit from a Cat. 3 hurricane and warned the city of NOLA to take action a long time ago.
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#12 ccannon707

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 11:17 PM

Carey:

the only one to predict that the dykes in New Orleans caving in would be the true

????

haha I think you meant dikes.......


hope 92 aka Julia is gentle with you.
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#13 BlueWaterPrincessa

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Posted 13 September 2010 - 07:44 AM

Carey:

????

haha I think you meant dikes.......


hope 92 aka Julia is gentle with you.

92L and Julia are two totally different storm systems and julia does not pose a threat to the caribbean and looks like 92L is not going to develop and go way south
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#14 Carey

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Posted 13 September 2010 - 08:18 AM

Carey:

????

haha I think you meant dikes.......


hope 92 aka Julia is gentle with you.


Oopsie and thanks for catching that one. But it does make for an interesting image, doesn't it? Ja Ja
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#15 Carey

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Posted 13 September 2010 - 08:20 AM

Latest update from my weather guru is cheery news: "Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become any stronger than a tropical storm with 50 mph winds by Wednesday, when it will move over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula."

However, I'm having a worrisome tree topped today in any case. 50 mph is enough to do that one in experience tells me.

Julia is curving up into the Atlantic. Caught in that blessed trough that has been protecting us so far from the African roll ins. May it stay in place for the remainder of the season!!!!
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#16 Charles

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Posted 13 September 2010 - 09:54 AM

Carey:

????

haha I think you meant dikes.......


hope 92 aka Julia is gentle with you.


Maybe a Freudian slip? According to Pat Robertson in was a dyke that caused the dikes to fail ...http://www.snopes.com/katrina/satire/robertson.asp

God's Wrath for Ellen hosting the Emmy awards. That nut case had about the same opinion of the cause of 9/11. Just to be safe, don't watch any Ellen shows until the storm season is over.
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#17 mslf500

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Posted 14 September 2010 - 09:07 AM

If the computer models are correct, this seems to follow the same path as Cat 5 Hurricane Dean.

Except for some erosion of beaches on the southern end (Rasta's/Freedom)and near the road Chen Rio it was a non-event. I know Cuco at Coconuts was laughing at his "misfortune". He took all the thatch off of his roof in anticipation of the storm. All of the t-shirts survived.
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#18 TRAVELER89

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Posted 14 September 2010 - 03:49 PM

TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/
BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

How close can it get?

Results for Cozumel, Mexico (20.44N, 86.93W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.3N, 87.3W or about 79.8 miles (128.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 19.7 hours (Wednesday, September 15 at 12:42PM EDT)

T.
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