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2012 Hurricane Season. Colorado State Predicts Unusually Mild Hurricane Season


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#1 CZMDM

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Posted 05 April 2012 - 06:33 PM

Colorado State University's Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray predict least intense Atlantic Basin hurricane season since 1995.

http://www.wtxl.com/...UtodKdEhnQ.cspx
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#2 nauticab

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Posted 05 April 2012 - 09:00 PM

crossing fingers that they are correct!
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#3 morenita

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Posted 05 April 2012 - 09:40 PM

I would not put too much faith in his predictions. They are more of a guess than anything else (in my opinion). This is sooo unbelievably ironic. I actually attended a conference about 6 years ago, not exactly sure of the date. I was visiting a friend. Another friend was visiting from Colorado from the same University as Dr Gray. He was attending a conference on hurricanes and invited us to go. Being from Mexico, where we have hurricanes, I jumped at the chance to go with him.

Dr. Gray's science has been rejected by much of the scientific community. His theory that hurricanes are caused by thermohaline Circulation has widely been discredited. It was one of the most interestng conferences I have attended. He had so little faith in his findings that he had not subjected them to a peer review. He was criticized by many that were there. He has basically rejected the idea of global warming which gets him alot of press time. His predictions are based more on studying patterns than anything related to physics. It might be good time for the Dr. to retire. He was very old at the time. I do not suggest that has anything to do with anything. Except that he seems to be holding on to very outdated science and rejects much more recent findings. But here is to hoping he is right. And I do hope he is right.

I am not really sure how this is an unusually mild season. The Doctor is predicting 10 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Which is fairly close to the average over the last 60+ years. The same number of storms and the same number of
major hurricanes and only two fewer lesser hurricanes. It is fairly average if you look at 60+ years of data.

Thats just my opinion. Let the criticism begin.

La climatologia desde 1950-2011 indica que lo normal son 9 1/2 tormentas, 6 huracanes y 2 huracanes intensos

In 2005 he was off by 15 storms and I believe many were questioning his 2006 predictions as well which ended up being off by 7 storms. This had made him the subject of alot of criticism at the conference. It has been suggested that "his predictions are more about his ego than science". But every year in april he allways gets alot of attention. Mostly on the conservative network Fox News after he came out as a global warming denier. I beleive he comes out with his prediction in april so he can be the first and is guaranteed to get press coverage. He used to do his forcast in november and december but that did not work so well for him. He also continues to update his forcast throughout the year when it is obvious he was wrong at the beginning. This allows him to look more accurate and get on the television more often. One may be just as accurate if they go with the average every year for a prediction. Which is basically what he did this year with just one minor change for "El Nino".

Over the past several years another group of forcasters started using a monkey to predict the years storms to see who is more accurate. We will see if the monkey wins again this year.

I went back and looked at the 18 years from 1984-2001 and he missed it by 56 storms. And in all of those years he updated his prediction at the end of july or the first of august some 5 months later. If I would have predicted those same 18 years using the average each year I would have missed it by 52 storms. And if I would have had the opportunity to make my prediction in august after seeing how the first 2 months of the season were I may have improved the number just by using averages for the first two months. But I could probably not get on television. So wait and see how his august prediction looks or just go with the monkey.
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#4 Carey

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 06:06 AM

Well, all's I know is this was one mighty hot winter we had. I hope the Atlantic cooled down somewhere on the way across from Africa because I'm guessing the Caribbean sea temps will be highly conducive to hurricane strengthening. I'll be ready this year just like I always am -- or have been since must have been around 2000.

First summer I was down here by myself finishing up one of our structures when we got a close call from a big one. It was only then that doofus realized, duh. Hurricanes.

I had to run around at the last minute -- 3 days ahead is last minute for me -- on my tricyclo which was my only conveyance at the time. Find and purchase 3/4" tri ply, get Mario and the boys to help me design the pipes and eye bolts system to brace the plywood. Lost a few pounds in pure sweat during that period.

I was an idiot not to have thought of that for the first time until it was on top of me.

In the end, I was all set. And then, of course, we got a pass. Had to learn my lesson the hard way.

It's not too early to get your hurricane plans and materials ready to go, new people. Good time actually as nothing is crowded and there are plenty of supplies -- or the time to order or bring them down. Be prepared and the worst thing that will happen to you in a big storm is you'll be stuck inside with no electricity and possibly a little water --from window leakage or rising water table.

No one dies. It's just irritating as hell and extremely inconvenient on all levels.
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#5 CZMDM

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 06:11 AM

Dr. Gray is THE number one most respected hurricane authority in the world. Colorado States predictions are THE most anticipated of all hurricane forecasts. Anyone who has been in hurricanes or has studied hurricanes is aware of this. Go to Weatherunderground and read what Dr. Jeff Masters has to say about Dr. Gray.

We have been in a La Nina situation for two years which highly increases the risk of hurricane. The La Nina is shifting into neutral and there is a slight chance for an El Nino event. La Nina & El Nino events affect the number of hurricane more than any other factors.

Hurricane forecasts are rarely accurate. NOAA states that even predicting the path of a formed hurricane only has a 30% probability 3 days out. Look at Rina. NOAA and ALL hurricane forecasts had Rina hitting the island as a Cat. 4 hurricane. With nothing in its way to slow it down the speed and strength looked more than accurate. 18 hours prior to landfall the hurricane broke up into a low end tropical storm.

Morenita you need to take some time and learn things on your own instead of just posting stuff you just read from Google, that just happens to be contradictory. It is not doing anyone any favors.
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#6 morenita

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 06:16 AM

Carey. I think you summed it up just about right. It is better to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. These predictions are rarely accurate.

Nothing I stated was from google. Everything is straight from his writings and his predictions. If you read his publications you will see that he has been a denyer of global warming for years. You can also read his publications on his theory of thermohaline. I know of very few scientists who would agree with this. The overwhelming scientific community is against him.

NMuch of his funding is drying up because he is no longer seen as being accurate.

In the 18 years I mentioned he was correct on two of them. He also updates his predictions two to three times a year to improve his accuracy. All you need to do is go directly to his predictions. For every person who sites his predictions I could show you several who do not put any faith in them, including people who have worked for and with him.

I have not made this personal in any way. I would just suggest that you can read his publications for yourself. You do not need to google anything. It is all right there in his writings. What I have learned I have read from what he has written. I am not intending to be contradictory. Just stating facts. Sorry if you see it diferently. That is certainly not my intention.
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#7 Carey

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 06:24 AM

Go to Weatherunderground and read what Dr. Jeff Masters has to say about Dr. Gray.
Morenita you need to take some time and learn things on your own instead of posting stuff from Google, that just happens to be contradictory. It is not doing anyone any favors.


In all fairness, Mike, Morenita DID say she had actually been to a conference of experts -- so she wasn't just taking her opinion from the internet.

That said, Dr. Jeff Masters of wunderground.com is my personal weather hero. I just love him and as far as I can tell, he is seldom wrong. He was the first one in the media that I saw, for example, to bring up the concern that the dykes in New Orleans might fail during Katrina and swamp the city. All the other media were crowing about how the winds weren't as bad as expected and yada yada. Masters was showing diagrams of downtown New Orleans and expressing grave concerns about massive flooding potential.

I also find him very reassuring to read when hurricanes are pointing our way as they so often are particularly in October. His analysis is no nonsense, non hype and I find that very calming, personally. I never ever ever allow myself to read or watch weather.com or any of the mega news media stations or websites. They are in it to sell advertising so their interest is to make everything look as urgent and dire as they possibly can. Scares my mother half to death a couple of times every year as she reads about her poor daughter about to get slammed by this 'monster' or that. And it usually doesn't happen. Or it's a tropical storm.
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#8 CZMDM

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 06:33 AM

Well, all's I know is this was one mighty hot winter we had. I hope the Atlantic cooled down somewhere on the way across from Africa because I'm guessing the Caribbean sea temps will be highly conducive to hurricane strengthening. I'll be ready this year just like I always am -- or have been since must have been around 2000.

First summer I was down here by myself finishing up one of our structures when we got a close call from a big one. It was only then that doofus realized, duh. Hurricanes.

I had to run around at the last minute -- 3 days ahead is last minute for me -- on my tricyclo which was my only conveyance at the time. Find and purchase 3/4" tri ply, get Mario and the boys to help me design the pipes and eye bolts system to brace the plywood. Lost a few pounds in pure sweat during that period.

I was an idiot not to have thought of that for the first time until it was on top of me.

In the end, I was all set. And then, of course, we got a pass. Had to learn my lesson the hard way.

It's not too early to get your hurricane plans and materials ready to go, new people. Good time actually as nothing is crowded and there are plenty of supplies -- or the time to order or bring them down. Be prepared and the worst thing that will happen to you in a big storm is you'll be stuck inside with no electricity and possibly a little water --from window leakage or rising water table.

No one dies. It's just irritating as hell and extremely inconvenient on all levels.



The reason the prediction is low is because the La Nina, which for the last two years has been producing prodigious amounts of hurricanes is turning to neutral and there is even a chance that there could be an El Nino event. I like you saw the very mild winter we just experienced and was thinking we might be in for a bad time. Then I saw the good news about the La Nina event coming to an end and it made the forecast clear.
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#9 CZMDM

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 06:37 AM

In all fairness, Mike, Morenita DID say she had actually been to a conference of experts -- so she wasn't just taking her opinion from the internet.


Excuse me if I find that dubious.
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#10 CZMDM

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 06:40 AM

Dr. Gray along with other weather people believe that hurricanes go through decade long cycles of low and high periods. He does not feel the global warming is the primary cause of hurricane. They believe that storm intensity is increased by global warming but the amount of hurricanes is cyclical.

In 2005 he was off by 15 storms? Lol! So was NOAA, Accu-weather, Weatherunderground and the Weather Channel. It was the single most unusual year in the history of hurricanes. You CAN Google that. I would think someone who really knew about storms would at the very least be aware of that fact.
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#11 morenita

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 06:55 AM

"The ones who see a link between increasing ocean temperatures and more intense hurricanes in recent decades don't understand the ocean or hurricanes" Dr Gray

Dr Gray does not believe global warming has an effect on the intensity of hurricanes. And he does not believe in global warming. He has called it a hoax. He is paid by the oil companies to go to conferences and testify to congress. He has lost most of the respect he once had among his peers and colleagues. Most all refuse to appear with him on any panels or discussions. They claim he will not comport himself well. And does not stick to the science but makes personal attacks.

He believes the earth will start to cool in a few years. So we will have the opportunuty in a few years to see if he is right.

My biggest concern with the global warming debate is the "what if"

If the skeptics are correct well than NO HARM. But if they are wrong? Will we be able to reverse the effects of all the CO2 in the atmosphere. That seems to be a huge gamble. But one thing for sure that the things we are putting in the air are not healthy. So reducing them is not a bad thing. And if what many scientists believe will keep the earths temperatures from warming even better.


I never suggested that global warming was the primary cause of hurricanes. I said his denial of global warming is a factor as to why he gets mentioned so prominantly on some news networks, like more conservative ones like Fox. But his theory of thermohaline cycle is linked to hurricane activity if you read his publications. If he were so confident in his theories he would have made them available at the time to peer review. He still will not subject his theories to peer review. Drawing criticism from those who have worked with him and for him not to mention the majority of the scientific community.

In the 18 years that I mentioned he was right in only two.

If you read what I wrote. I would have been more accurate in my predictions during the same 18 years if I had just used the average over the last century for each of those 18 years. I would have only been off 52 times as opposed to 56 times as was Dr. Gray.

I mentioned in my post the "El Nino" effect. That is why he basically used the average and ever so slightly tweaked it down a bit. But we will see what his prediction is in five months when he redoes it as he allways does.

If you found what I said dubious, and implying that it is doubtful. Then you are entitled to your own opinion. But I will not make this personal. I am not going to go there. I stand by facts . They can speak for themself. And if I say I was at a conference I can back it up. I have pictures of Dr Gray. And I have been to his research center in Colorado.

"In 2005 he was off by 15 storms? Lol! So was NOAA, Accu-weather, Weatherunderground and the Weather Channel. It was the single most unusual year in the history of hurricanes. You CAN Google that. I would think someone who really knew about storms would at the very least be aware of that fact".

You are absolutely correct about that. And in 2006 to make up for it he kept the number very high and was over by 7 storms. He then used the exact same figures for 2007 that he used for 2006. Without changing them at all. There is very little that is scientific about his predictions. I could do better just using the average.

I did not nor do I intend to google anything. Nor did I ever say that I knew much about storms. That is far from my area of expertice. I only know what I learned attending a conference and reading about it. It is something I was interested in and do really enjoy reading about. I am not a meteorologist. I know very little about it. But I do love to read anything I can. And I only can repeat what I have read. I do not know why you imply that I am saying things I am not. Stay with the facts. If you can prove wrong anything I am saying I am very happy to learn something new. I welcome any difference of opinion.

I post things here for a couple of reasons. One is that it is an excellent opportunity for me to practice english. And secondly I love to learn. And if someone can present another point of view and support it with facts then I am all ears. If I am wrong I would be the first to admit it. But you need to prove it. A while back in a post I made an error in something I said. The very brilliant Doctor corrected me but those posts were lost when the thread got transfered to a new thread for diabetes. I stood corrected and admited the same. I have allways said the more I know the more I realize what I do not know

I am a dive master but I am sure I will never in all my life know what you do or ever have your experience here in that area. I know people who dive with you and they speak very highly of you. I would allways defer to your knowledge and expertise there.

But when I do speak of something it is because I have done alot of research in it. I may not allways be right but I have at least studied it. So please do not imply I do not know what I am talking about. I assure you I have done my homework. At least give me that much respect. I would do the same for you.

As far as any statistics I stated. Those are just obvious. Just go to his predictions and read them for yourself. It is pretty clear.

I was at no time making this personal or being contradictory. I was merely saying that I would not put alot of faith in his predictions. Especially at this early date. Wait until he modifies them in august. Which he will do. He has done it every year since 1984 which was as far back as I went reading his forcasts.
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#12 morenita

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 08:11 AM

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss and proffer different probabilities as hurricane seasons approach — a much more cautious approach. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do next".

" Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.” Dr. Gray

From Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground refering to Colorado State Universities april predictions: "April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called predictability barrier.

University College London Climate Extremes has been much more accurate with its predictions than Dr. Gray

I think Max Mayfield of NOAA was more highly respected as a forecaster. He was the one who first sounded the alarm about the levies in New Orleans and then others picked up on it.

I am only offering another point of view. It can never hurt to get a second opinion.

Several researchers have said that Dr. Gray has been regarded as the best just because for so long people have been saying he is the best and it just got to be accepted as fact and no one until now ever really questioned it. But his record over the years does not support it.

His predictions have allways been anticipated that is true. But that has a lot to do with the fact that he is very good at P.R. and promoting himself. He used to come out with his december predictions to get a jump on everyone else and it got him mentioned. It was not as risky as you would think because he would revise it in april and again in august. It was great publicity. Colorado State Universities Atmospheric Research Center is supported with grant money. And the more publicity you can get for your program the more grant money you can bring in. It is an impressive facility. I have been there. Not that I really understood much of what they were doing. Like I said it is not my area of expertise. I was just there visiting with a friend who works in this facility with Dr Gray. I was interested in learning all I could at the time. I found it fascinating. I loved Colorado and the University is really beautiful. A really intersting mixture of older architecture and very modern buildings. Even though I still think the sports center is really ugly. Hope nobody from there reads this. I think they name it after a fish or something like that. It was quite odd. The building where Dr. Gray works is much further away like close to the mountains, and there is another type of research building there as well I believe for engineering, like with hydraulics or something like that. Anyway they did a lot of projects with water. I would love to go back some day for a visit. I really loved this place.

So you might think you know all about Dr. Gray and how he is thought to be the best. I have first experience with people that work with him and have seen a whole different side of the story.

Alot of what Dr Gray does is publicity and that means self promotion. And he is extremely good at it. But he has been at odds with many of his peers for years now. Especially since he made some comparison with global warming and Hitler. I do not really remember what that was about. But I do know something about what I am talking about. My friend works with Doctor Gray and has been at the research facility for many years. Many consider his science and techniques to be outdated. One climate scientist said he is fifty years out of date. From what my friend has told me Dr. Gray rejects most all new computer modeling. He would know. He has worked with him for a very very long time.

"Dr. Gray is THE number one most respected hurricane authority in the world"

This just simply is no longer true. And I know colleagues of his that would tell you that.

"The heart of the problem with Gray’s new version of the THC story is that he labors under the misconception that the THC primarily upwells in the tropics, so that any reduction in the THC cools the North Atlantic but warms the tropics. This conception is at least 50 years out of date. The tropical upwelling is a shallow wind-driven cell that does not connect to the THC. It is almost impossible for cold deep water to upwell in the tropics, because it takes too much energy to bring it up; the main THC connection is with the Southern Ocean, as described by Marotzke"

"The problem is not Gray’s age — we all revered Henry Stommel who did some of his finest work in his seventies. The problem is Gray’s failure to adapt to a modern era of meteorology, which demands hypotheses soundly grounded in quantitative and consistent physical formulations, not seat-of-the-pants flying".
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#13 cvchief

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 08:27 AM

I think I like this Gray guy. Right or wrong, he likes to tell people to get bent. Old Article

And in fairness, Morenita, we are talking about weathermen. Are they all as trustworthy as used car salesmen?
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#14 morenita

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 11:36 AM

Chief. That article is very good reading. I was hoping maybe my friend would have been mentioned. Because then I could have used his name because it would not be anonymous.

I understand what you saying. But car salesman may be a little harsh. There is actually a whole lot of science involved. But Dr. Grays theories are 50 years behind according to one review I read by a climate scientist. He refered to it as "seat of the pants flying". If you ever want to read it I can paste it here. It was a scientific review. But very technical and it goes into Dr Grays Thermohaline cycle in great detail. Very interesting reading.
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#15 MarkC

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 12:52 PM

For those gringos out there, "El Niño" is Spanish for... "THE NIÑO...."

LOL
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#16 morenita

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 01:02 PM

I think what Mark is saying is that in spanish it means the little boy. It is the name for the "christ child". If I remember correctly it was given this name because the warming is near to Christmas.

Is that what you were refering to Mark?
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#17 Coz2wonder

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 01:12 PM

It really doesn't matter who is the King of 'PREDICTIONS'...there only predictions.

Follow the science, have basic understand of weather and hope like hell the winds turn in another directions others then towards us.

I look at many different forecasts, models, find the common ground, and logic between them. I really don't give a hoot who the mouth piece is.
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#18 nauticab

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 01:12 PM

i won't hesitate to say that many of the dive op owners here in cozumel have as much knowledge of hurricanes and weather disturbances as some of the best of the best in the world as we approach the season. then all of a sudden, those who live here all turn into walter weatherman and i find it amusing. but you will damned sure that all dive ops are studying charts and weather systems with great detail, looking at ALL the forecasts, as their livelihood depends on it.
wilma was NOT predicted. she started as this little disturbance below jamaica. rina was a joke. i had a broken twig in my yard and was up til 2am the night before having the guys install storm shutters for my upstairs windows.
jeff masters says this:
CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

it doesn't really matter because the end of the world is approaching fast. :)

mike...ahem. (wink)
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#19 morenita

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 01:17 PM

Some would suggest turtle nesting is a more accurate prediction.
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#20 nauticab

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 01:21 PM

of hurricanes or that the world is coming to an end? jeje
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